Gaming: College Pigskin Prognostications
NCAA Football Betting Lines
09/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After months of waiting, the 2010 college football season is ready to kick off its first barrage of Saturday games, and with that comes the unveiling of my inaugural Top 12, followed by each club's power ratings.
1-T) Boise State and Ohio State, 100.5; 3-T) Oklahoma and Alabama, 100; 5) Florida, 99.5; 6) Texas, 99; 7) Nebraska, 98.5; 8-T) Wisconsin and Iowa, 98; 10-T) TCU and Oregon, 97.5; 12) LSU, 96.5
For comparison purposes, here were last year's final Top 10 numbers:
1) Alabama, 108; 2) Florida, 106; 3) Texas, 105.5; 4) TCU, 103.5; 5) Oklahoma, 103; 6) Virginia Tech, 102; 7) Boise State, 101.5; 8-T) Nebraska and Ohio State, 100; 10) Oregon, 98
2009 ATS RECORD
Yours truly went 5-3 during last year's bowl campaign for a final 2009 ATS total of 116-94-2, good for 55 percent.
This season I will continue highlighting the top plays on a weekly basis, especially since those games with extensive write-ups went 25-8-1 between Oct. 1 and the end of the season. I will also try to maintain that 75 percent winning percentage in 2010.
For those reading this column for the first time, I break down my picks into four classifications. The Five-Star plays are those games where my key selections and my "Power Numbers" match. The Three-Star choices are my personal picks, while the Two-Star plays are the "power number" picks -- games with at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line. Finally, the One-Star plays are my personal secondary selections.
Last season's Five-Star totals wound up at 5-4 (56 percent). The Three-Star choices went 45-24-1 (65 percent), while the Two-Star plays finished at 35-31-1 (53 percent). The One-Star picks ended at 31-35 (47 percent).
So far in 2010, the overall record stands at 1-0-1 as Hawaii (Two-Star) covered against USC and Utah (Three-Star) pushed versus Pittsburgh.
THE LONE FIVE-STAR PLAY
Auburn hosts Arkansas State in its opener this Saturday but one wonders how much the Tigers have prepared for the Red Wolves, especially with a huge conference road game just five days later against Mississippi State.
There is no doubt Auburn will be much improved this season after going 3-5 in SEC play last year. However, do not sell Arkansas State short. The Red Wolves have covered at least one game per season over the last seven years versus a BCS opponent, including a three-point SU loss at Iowa in '09, a victory over Texas A&M in '08, and an eight-point SU loss at Texas in '07. Arkansas State's defense will keep this one much closer than the line suggests.
Take the Red Wolves plus the points.
THREE-STAR PLAYS
Oklahoma State hosts Washington State and, surprisingly, the Cowboys are not favored by at least 20 points. The line is extremely low at 17 considering the Cougars still have major question marks on defense.
It is true Oklahoma State will not be one of the top teams in the Big 12 this season but the Cowboys will still put points on the scoreboard. Defensively, they will struggle with just four returning starters. Still, we are talking Washington State -- not Troy, Tulsa and Texas A&M, the next three opponents that come to Stillwater.
Take Oklahoma State minus the points.
Michigan State and Western Michigan hooked up last Nov. 7 and the Spartans rolled to a 49-14 victory. They also outgained the Broncos by close to 400 yards. Not much has changed since as Michigan State returns the bulk of its skill position players and four of its top five tacklers. On the other side, Western Michigan is without its all-time career passing leader in Tim Hiller and its third all-time leading rusher in Brandon West. The defense loses its top two tacklers along with both starting cornerbacks.
Take Michigan State minus the points.
TWO-STAR PICKS
Three underdogs top the Two-Star choices in week one. Go with Purdue (at Notre Dame), Cincinnati (at Fresno State), and Maryland (versus Navy).
ONE-STAR SELECTIONS
Take Toledo (against Arizona) on Friday night and follow that up with Washington plus the points (at BYU), and Boise State on Monday night (against Virginia Tech).
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