Devils aim to keep rolling against East-leading Rangers
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02/07/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Devils have matched their longest winning streak of the season and will try to keep rolling tonight, when they face the Eastern Conference-leading New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.
The Devils have used a potent offensive attack to record wins in each of their last four games, matching a streak from Dec. 12-17. New Jersey has notched 20 goals in its last four trips to the ice and it posted a pair of key wins over Atlantic Division rivals over the weekend.
New Jersey jumped out to a 6-0 lead in Philadelphia on Saturday and held on for a 6-4 win over the Flyers. The Devils then posted a 5-2 triumph Sunday against the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins.
With 60 points, the Devils are seeded sixth in the East, but are also fourth in the Atlantic, where they are one point behind Pittsburgh and three in back of Philadelphia. The Rangers, meanwhile, are five points ahead of Philly and eight in front of Jersey.
New York has also been hot lately, winning four of its last five (4-0-1). The only setback for the Rangers during that stretch came in a shootout loss in New Jersey last Tuesday. The Blueshirts have still taken six of the last nine meetings with the Devils overall and New York has claimed three of the last four matchups in the Big Apple.
One player who has clearly made a difference for New Jersey during its current winning streak is Ilya Kovalchuk. The Russian forward had a goal and two assists in Sunday's decisive win over the Penguins and now has 10 points (3 goals, 7 assists) in his last four games.
"We are consistently doing the right things," said Kovalchuk. "We create a lot of chances and defensively we didn't give much."
Zach Parise also had a goal and an assist in the victory over the Pens, while Anton Volchenkov and Dainius Zubrus also found the back of the net. Both Parise and fellow forward Patrik Elias are riding five-game point streaks.
Martin Brodeur made 28 saves to post Sunday's win and he also added an assist on David Clarkson's empty netter.
The Devils have won three straight and four of their last five on the road and are 15-10-1 as the guest this season.
New Jersey defenseman Adam Larsson (back) and forward Ryan Carter (hand) are questionable for tonight's game. Both players were injured in last Tuesday's game against the Rangers.
New York has won two straight since dropping last week's shootout decision against the Devils. The Rangers are coming off Sunday's impressive 5-2 rout of the visiting Flyers. Artem Anisimov had a goal and two assists to lead the New York to the easy win over their division rivals.
Marian Gaborik had a goal and an assist while Michael Del Zotto, Brandon Dubinsky and Ruslan Fedotenko all scored for the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist, who had posted shutouts in his previous two starts, allowed two goals on 23 shots in the win.
"I think we know how important these games are," said Gaborik. "We come with a lot of energy and stick with our system. We have played very well against them this year and this game was one of them."
Lundqvist is expected to be back in net tonight to face the Devils. New York's No. 1 netminder had made 32 consecutive starts in the series with New Jersey before Martin Biron received the call last Tuesday. Biron is 8-15-3 with a pair of ties in his career against the Devils, while Lundqvist has built a stellar 23-9-5 record versus New Jersey.
The Rangers began a three-game homestand on Sunday and are 16-5-2 as the host this year.
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When LeBron James and Cleveland get together, it's always a little extra special. James and the Miami Heat will finish a brief two-game homestand tonight by welcoming the Cavaliers and the new face of their franchise,
<< Pierce eyes a legend in Celtics-Bobcats matchup
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston Celtics forward Paul Pierce is on the verge of
passing a legend on the team's all-time scoring list and will lead the surging
squad into tonight's showdown versus the lowly Charlotte Bobcats at TD Garden.
Pier
<< Redd, Suns invade Milwaukee
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Suns look to continue their dominance over the
Milwaukee Bucks when the two clubs collide tonight at the Bradley Center.
The Suns won the first matchup of the season by a 109-93 score on Jan. 8 in
the deser
<< Love-less Wolves welcome Kings to Twin Cities
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Timberwolves will be without star forward
Kevin Love for the next two games because of a suspension and will move on
tonight versus the Sacramento Kings from the Target Center.
Love was slapped with
<< Durant leads Thunder into Golden State
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are only two teams Kevin Durant is averaging 30-plus
points against in his career and the Golden State Warriors are one of them.
Durant and the NBA-leading Oklahoma City Thunder will resume a five-game road
trip to
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Another battle for first place in the Southeast Division is on tap tonight, as the Washington Capitals host the Florida Panthers at the Verizon Center. Florida enters tonight with a one-point lead over the Capitals for the
Pens close out road trip with test against Habs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins have gone through a rough patch to
begin February, but they'll try to get back on track tonight when they visit
the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre.
The Penguins ended January on an eight-game
Elliott returns to Ottawa as Blues visit Sens >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ottawa Senators decided last season that they wanted to
upgrade their goaltending position. Now the man that they dealt away reappears
in town as an All-Star.
Brian Elliott makes his return to Scotiabank Place this eve
Surging Bolts host low-scoring Kings >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kings have struggled to score goals over the first two
games of their season-long road trip, failing to earn a point despite
excellent goaltending.
In fact, Lightning forward Martin St. Louis had more goals in his last
Pacers try to rebound vs. Jazz >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indiana Pacers had their season-high four-game winning
streak cut short the last time out and tonight they'll try and start a new run
with the Utah Jazz in town.
Indiana dropped an 85-81 decision versus the Orla
Terrell Owens could return for Cowboys next game
A bye week will allow Terrell Owens broken hand to recover just in time for the next game the Dallas Cowboys are slated to play, according to reports. MySportsbook.com, an football sportsbook, has posted football betting lines on TO playing.
Owens broke the bone leading to his right ring finger Sunday night and had a plate surgically attached to it Monday. Although Owens' hand was swollen and aching Wednesday, Dallas Cowboys coach Bill Parcells said he's optimistic the receiver will be back at work next week and catching passes a week from Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.
MySportsbook.com online sportsbook listed Terrell Owens with odds of 7-2 (or $7 paid out for every $2 bet) to return back for the game against Tennessee.
"I certainly wouldn't rule it out now," Parcells said, referring to Terrell Owens immediate return. "Maybe five days from now I might, but I wouldn't rule it out now. ... I know we're looking to try to get him moving around pretty good in the next day or so. So we'll see where we are."
Owens did not speak with reporters Wednesday, but said Sunday he'd be out two to four weeks. A return against the Titans would be 13 days after the surgery. The Cowboys were listed as an early -7 1/2 favorite vs. the Tennessee Titans for Week 4 at MySportsbook.com
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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