Braves head to Pittsburgh for key set with Bucs
Baseball Betting Lines
09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A loss today could push the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves out of first place for the first time since May 30.
They probably couldn't be happier to see the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Atlanta aims to maintain its edge in the division standings and beat Pittsburgh for a sixth time in seven meetings this year when the two clubs start off a three-game set this afternoon at PNC Park.
Losses in three of four games following five straight victories, as well as an 8-9 stretch since Aug. 19, have the Braves just one game up on the Phillies for first place. They could have entered this series tied with Philadelphia atop the standings after a 7-6 setback to Florida on Sunday, but the Phils were also defeated yesterday.
However, the Phillies are scheduled to play a doubleheader with the Marlins today, so a loss by the Braves tonight and a sweep by the Phils would knock Atlanta out of the top spot.
A loss by the Braves doesn't seem likely, though, as they took two of three in Pittsburgh from May 21-23 before capping the month with a three-game sweep over the Pirates at home. Atlanta has won eight of the last 11 overall meetings between the teams.
The Braves rallied from a 6-0 deficit on Sunday, tying the game with a five- run sixth inning before Eric O'Flaherty served up the game-winning run in the 10th frame. Nate McLouth drove in three runs for Atlanta and nearly had more, as he was robbed of a grand slam in the sixth inning on a great defensive catch.
Braves starter Mike Minor gave up six runs over just four innings of work.
"Overall, I couldn't hit a spot." he said. "Everything was basically towards the middle of the plate, and it's easy enough to hit the ball when it's towards the middle of the plate."
Tommy Hanson hopes to join in on the Braves' success over the Pirates when he faces the club for the first time in his young career this afternoon.
The 24-year-old Hanson is coming off his first victory since July 3, as he ended an 0-5 stretch over 10 starts with a win over the Mets on Wednesday. He gave up just one hit and one walk over seven scoreless innings, striking out three while allowing a run or less for the sixth time in his last eight starts.
"My pitches felt really good," said Hanson. "I worked really hard in between starts trying to get my fastball command going. I felt like I did that [Wednesday]."
The right-hander aims for consecutive winning starts for the first time since a three-game win streak from May 26-June 5 and is 9-10 with a 3.60 ERA this season.
Hanson will face a Pirates club that managed just a solo homer out of Pedro Alvarez in Sunday's 8-1 setback to Washington, Pittsburgh's seventh loss in nine games. Neil Walker did add three hits to extend his hitting streak to 12 games, a span in which he is hitting .415 (22-for-53) with four homers and 14 RBI.
Pittsburgh starter Charlie Morton lasted only 3 2/3 innings after yielding six runs -- two earned -- on eight hits with a pair of walks.
"A little more aggressive," Pirates manager John Russell said about Morton's outing. "For the most part I thought he was better. Still not where we'd like to get him, but it's a step in the right direction.
With Jeff Karstens unable to make the start tonight due to right shoulder soreness, Brian Burres will come out of the bullpen for the Pirates to his first start since May 29.
"It just doesn't feel right," Russell told Pittsburgh's website of Karstens shoulder. "It's been a long year for him, and it's a little cranky."
Burres faced the Braves in his last start, getting tagged for four runs over five innings to take the loss in his only career appearance against them. He was then demoted to the minors, but returned on Aug. 28.
The 29-year-old lefty has made four relief appearances since his return, allowing six runs over four innings. On the season, Burres is 2-3 with a 6.31 ERA in 14 games, including seven starts.
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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